Autumn Budget 2026: what's already decided for the self-employed, and what's still rumour

The short answer: The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October. Some things are already fixed. Making Tax Digital reaches incomes over £30,000 next April, tax bands stay frozen until 2031, and dividend tax has gone up, with savings tax to follow. Changes to National Insurance, the VAT threshold or pension tax relief are still rumours, so we'll know more on the day.

The quick version

• The Budget is on 28 October 2026.

• From 6 April 2027, Making Tax Digital applies if your self-employed and property income is over £30,000.

• Income tax bands are frozen until April 2031.

• Anything else you read before 28 October is a guess, so we'll update this page once the Budget is out.

Last updated 3 October 2026.

When is the Autumn Budget 2026, and what has the government ruled out?

The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, and Chancellor John Healey will deliver it. The Treasury confirmed the date in a letter to the Treasury Select Committee in July.

Labour's manifesto said it would not raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has recommitted to not raising income tax rates.

It's worth reading the small print, though, because that promise only covers tax rates. It doesn't cover tax bands, allowances, dividend tax or capital gains tax. That means a Budget can still change what you pay without touching a headline rate.

Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future.

What's already changing for the self-employed in April 2027?

Quite a lot, and none of it depends on the Budget. These changes have already been announced, so you can check which ones apply to you now.

Table based on GOV.UK guidance as at 3 October 2026.

If Making Tax Digital already applies to you, there are no penalties for missing a quarterly update in 2026/27. From later tax years, each missed update earns a penalty point, so it helps to know your dates early. Our guide to Making Tax Digital for sole traders covers the deadlines.

If you run a limited company, it's worth knowing that dividend tax also went up in April 2026. The ordinary rate rose from 8.75% to 10.75%.

Will my tax bill go up even if tax rates don't?

It can, and here's why. The Personal Allowance (£12,570) and the higher-rate threshold (£50,270) are frozen until 5 April 2031. The point where Class 4 National Insurance starts stays tied to the Personal Allowance.

When your profit rises but the bands don't, more of it is taxed. It's like a waistband that never gets let out.

A made-up example. Sam's profit goes from £30,000 to £32,000. The bands stay put, so all £2,000 extra is taxed at 20% income tax and 6% Class 4 National Insurance. That's £520 more tax on that £2,000. If the bands had risen too, some of it would have been tax-free.

Class 4 is currently 6% on profits from £12,570 to £50,270, and 2% above that.

Is anything being said about unfreezing? The Prime Minister has spoken of frustration about the personal allowance, but hasn't made a promise yet. The IFS estimates that restarting rises from April 2027 would cost about £8.4 billion a year.

Could the way I pay my tax bill change?

Not straight away, so your next bill works the same way. Today, most people in Self Assessment make payments on account by 31 January and 31 July. If last year's bill was under £1,000, you won't need to make them.

HMRC has consulted on changing this. From April 2029, people with enough PAYE income would pay their Self Assessment tax through their payslip. For everyone else, it looked at monthly or quarterly payments. The government plans to respond in autumn 2026, so news could come around the Budget.

Want a refresher on how the two payments work? Read our guide to payments on account.

What are people saying could change for the self-employed?

Nobody outside the Treasury knows what's in the Budget, so it helps to read these as predictions, not plans.

• National Insurance. Accountancy firm BDO suggests the government could end the gap between employee and self-employed NI.

• VAT threshold. BDO also suggests it could rise from £90,000 to £100,000.

• Dividends. Sumit Agarwal of DNS Accountants predicts the £500 dividend allowance will go. He also suggests a 2% levy on earnings over £75,000.

• Employment status. Danny Batey of Markel Tax sees "a very small chance" of an update on the Employment Status Review.

• Capital gains tax. Which? reports that Louise Haigh has proposed aligning capital gains tax with income tax.

Money is tight for the government. The Resolution Foundation says borrowing is £8.1 billion above forecast. That makes big giveaways less likely, but it doesn't tell us which of these will happen.

Is pension tax relief or the tax-free lump sum being cut?

There's been no announcement on this yet, so here's how things work today.

• You get tax relief on pension contributions up to 100% of your earnings. Your provider claims relief at the 20% basic rate and adds it to your pot. Higher-rate taxpayers claim the rest through Self Assessment.

• The annual allowance, the most you can usually save in a year before a tax charge, is £60,000.

• You can usually take 25% tax-free, up to £268,275.

Capital at risk. The value of your pension can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you pay in.

Speculation about the tax-free cash cap comes up before most Budgets. Investment platform interactive investor notes concern that the cap could be lowered. Pensions minister Torsten Bell has criticised newspaper speculation about it. City AM reports that pension withdrawals rose in 2025/26 amid worries about a cap on tax-free cash, and former pensions minister Steve Webb has called for "a period of stability".

What about the salary sacrifice cap? From April 2029, only the first £2,000 of salary sacrifice pension contributions will be free of National Insurance. This change is for employees. If you're a sole trader you won't be using salary sacrifice, so it won't change how you pay into your own pension. Our guide to tax relief for the self-employed explains how relief works for you.

Should I do anything before 28 October?

Everyone's situation is different, so we can't say what's right for you. What we can do is walk you through the rules, and point you to some free checks that might help.

It's tempting to act on rumours, but it can backfire. Before the last Budget, some people took tax-free cash early, and the cut never came. Hargreaves Lansdown says it's best not to act on Budget rumours. MoneyWeek points out that once you use part of your lump sum allowance, it stays used.

Here are some free checks that are useful whatever the Budget says:

1. Check if Making Tax Digital applies to you from April 2027, using HMRC's checker guidance.

2. Check your National Insurance record online. It shows any gaps and whether voluntary payments could fill them.

3. Check your payment dates. Note 31 January and 31 July, or use our sole trader tax planner.

4. Get free guidance. MoneyHelper has guides for the self-employed. If you're 50 or over with a defined contribution pension, Pension Wise offers a free, impartial appointment.

For context, the Pensions Commission found that just 4% of wholly self-employed workers are saving for retirement. Its final report is due in early 2027.

Still got questions?

When is the Autumn Budget 2026? Wednesday 28 October 2026. We'll update this page once it's out.

Does Making Tax Digital apply to me from April 2027? It does if your qualifying income from self-employment and property was over £30,000 in 2025/26.

Will Class 4 National Insurance go up? Nothing has been announced yet, so for 2026/27 Class 4 is still 6% and 2%. BDO has suggested the NI gap with employees could close, but that's only a prediction.

Does the salary sacrifice cap affect sole traders? No. It applies to employees who pay into a pension through salary sacrifice, from April 2029.

Can the tax-free lump sum be cut before I retire? No change has been announced, although any government can change the rules in future. Under today's rules you can usually take 25%, up to £268,275.